The crucible of Yemen

The two opposing forces of unity and disunity are helping to shape the future of the struggle against Saleh in Yemen.
by Larbi Sadiki, Al Jazeera, May 22, 2011

There has never been a single Yemen, and maybe there will never be one. What is nonetheless exceptional about the revolt engulfing Yemen is that it represents a united stand, a cry for freedom and dignity. Thus it echoes the cry for freedom in Tunis’ Habib Bourguiba Avenue and Cairo’s Tahrir Square.

However, Yemen presents a prominent specificity; it’s a unity-disunity pairing that shapes and re-shapes the current moment of popular empowerment, constantly stirring the politics concocted within the Yemeni crucible.

Note that Yemenis feel insulted by the brand of nepotism and dynasticism engineered by Saleh and his ilk. The fissiparous forces which Saleh controlled, kept in check or used to his own ends through cunning, money, and even violence, are today largely rallied against him.

He dropped them like hot potatoes when political expediency demanded it. Now they are returning the favour. In this, Saleh’s foes seem to be united.

The interplay of unity and disunity are responsible for both Yemen’s moment of popular empowerment and weakness, as far as democratic protest and change are concerned.

One Yemen, many Yemens

In every sense, Yemen is breathtaking. It is a quilt of colours, climes, landscapes, regions, sects, tribes, customs, ideologies, histories and identities. Anthropologists would have a field day exploring it. But not so if one approaches Yemen with a narrow political science set of lenses. The risk to miss the “Archimedean point” – wherever that might be – is greatest here. Continue reading The Crucible of Yemen →

Ali Abdullah Salih, from 1978 to 2011

From the latest news reports in the region it appears that President Ali Abdullah Salih has agreed to step down within a month in an agreement brokered by the GCC. The plan calls for Salih to hand over power to his Vice President one month after the opposition signs on to the agreement, which they have reportedly done. Although, as I write this Salih’s decision to step down has not been broadcast in the state-run Yemeni newspaper al-Thawra or on his personal website. Two months later a national election is to be held. A possible sticking point is the immunity that this agreement provides President Salih and his family. The U.S. administration has already blessed the plan and it seems likely that it will be finally resolve Salih’s departure.

The protests against Salih have left the country divided and the economy, weak as it was to begin with, has basically ground to a halt. The poorest country in the Middle East is even poorer after three months of protests across the country. So what happens now?

The removal of President Salih will not solve the range of economic, ecological and social problems facing Yemen. Unemployment will continue, as the oil production nears an end; water tables will draw down even more drastically; imported Salafi conservatism will divide the population even more. In a sense Salih has been out of power for the past three months, simply hanging on as the protests gained more and more momentum. Unable, and apparently unwilling, to stop the street protests militarily (as Qaddafi is desperately trying), Salih deftly tried to garner his own supporters as a counter to those who wanted him to leave. But the hand writing was on the wall all along, given the wide coalition of groups who had grievances against his regime. The opposition seemingly united in its primary goal of removing Salih, but there is no single leading opposition party or leader waiting in the wings. Continue reading Yemen after Ali Abdullah Salih →

Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar

Yemen’s future hinges on its two most powerful men
By Sudarsan Raghavan, The Washington Post, Thursday, March 31, 11:25 PM

SANAA, Yemen — They are from the same village, the same tribe and the same clan. Once as close as brothers, they rose together in Yemen’s military, shared the same political vision, the same lofty desires. One is a conservative Islamist with reputed links to Osama bin Laden. The other is one of America’s closest counterterrorism allies.

For 32 years, Ali Abdullah Saleh and Maj. Gen. Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar have controlled this poor but strategic Middle East nation, the former as its ubiquitous president and the latter as its invisible yet most influential military leader. Now, they are engaged in a highly personal battle to shape the future of Yemen and their own places in history.

“They are like Siamese twins, one body with two heads,” said Hassan Zaid, a top opposition leader. “Now, each head is trying to cut off the other’s head and take control of the whole body.”

Over the past two months, the momentous events in Yemen have echoed those around North Africa and the Middle East: a populist rebellion, fueled by decades of injustice, rising up to demand its leader’s ouster.

But the twist that has emerged in the past two weeks has injected a narrative of Shakespearean proportions, one tightly focused on the two rivals, shrewd men from humble beginnings who grew wealthy and powerful amid allegations of corruption and ruthlessness, and who have now turned on each other. Continue reading Yemen’s future … →